Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 82782.775688 87391.829222 92000.418802 96951.039554 102115.273670 107340.153221 113022.633775
2025-02-23 75106.108245 82158.444330 89408.988961 97410.216468 105981.827178 114878.608483 124800.555062
2025-03-02 69428.814197 78118.524213 87250.307133 97541.052640 108793.641715 120702.675049 134237.693443
2025-03-09 65866.617900 75865.523490 86565.055108 98831.369478 112469.188475 127130.526658 144047.352986
2025-03-16 61944.716920 72862.530080 84735.843982 98556.656559 114149.389766 131143.404681 151010.636448
2025-03-23 59705.162760 71536.512547 84586.790521 99980.072463 117567.898565 136962.896746 159892.330561
2025-03-30 57457.601564 70034.773750 84090.839824 100873.801434 120272.661503 141894.833257 167717.810664
2025-04-06 55031.392027 68181.799521 83062.495507 101035.541131 122036.811867 145679.957024 174183.829752
2025-04-13 52722.394766 66344.780885 81942.700252 100987.676029 123469.678806 149017.230223 180088.360381
2025-04-20 51466.818337 65683.364920 82136.149079 102421.850761 126587.974882 154278.525928 188218.994087
2025-04-27 50289.557651 65049.712357 82305.952077 103779.925049 129582.828556 159380.791148 196171.396471
2025-05-04 48848.563791 64027.847831 81951.933989 104459.533470 131732.091217 163466.843802 202925.648749
2025-05-11 47103.810054 62589.168812 81063.062081 104476.673239 133090.463061 166643.070329 208660.539712
2025-05-18 45719.877805 61548.956873 80618.591394 105000.701342 135040.050385 170520.813696 215251.515462
2025-05-25 44238.409863 60329.686027 79903.407911 105147.365866 136495.856958 173786.060992 221105.291393
2025-06-01 43440.884568 59944.188489 80196.174863 106520.120291 139444.124394 178858.568777 229166.303027
2025-06-08 41911.357095 58564.735127 79192.666849 106228.556455 140298.979854 181359.963568 234091.446523
2025-06-15 41295.413843 58343.713300 79634.204970 107741.028113 143393.946560 186612.204638 242408.745222
2025-06-22 40464.050412 57808.771861 79648.544098 108690.517427 145771.947616 190982.748618 249659.975508
2025-06-29 39336.335996 56844.611134 79077.435268 108862.338368 147147.341682 194100.968087 255366.390139
2025-07-06 38169.531502 55791.363055 78357.244981 108811.491802 148216.046316 196823.453127 260580.223378
2025-07-13 37718.393674 55683.742561 78858.550199 110334.901801 151295.223063 202074.974839 268982.593570
2025-07-20 37256.864173 55543.914656 79303.864288 111777.252556 154271.241898 207209.372169 277267.556122